I think there is a time for the discussion about forecast verification, and it is not in the midst of an evolving, dangerous event. Two EF-4 tornadoes from separate supercells, killing 3 people. Photogenic EF4 tornado, part of a large-scale tornado outbreak. Cyclic mothership supercell that produced multiple brief tornadoes in quick succession. A few tornadoes (up to EF2, though likely stronger) occurring primarily from the same supercell in rapid succession (with a brief period of two simultaneous tornadoes), part of a local outbreak in and around the Texas panhandle. A particularly photogenic mothership supercell. the latest public statement about this event. Alas, we couldnt see a thing through a haze so dense that visibility was seemingly reduced to a hundred yards. ET, May 23, 2019 Thats why a single HRRR forecast, especially one in which a forecast is largely composed of something such as simulated radar (which is not a good way to forecast anyway), should be taken with several grains of salt. The short of it: I hold a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and have been chasing storms in the plains since 2006. Particularly photogenic and cyclic supercell that produced several tornadoes up to EF3. This page is a useful bookmark for past famous tornadoes, supercells, and other storms in the United States and Canada. (624 Miles) May 12, 2022 - 80-90 MPH Straight line winds in a fast moving Derecho near Huron, SD (1585 Miles) But it was more than enough to get both my father and I hooked for life. After dinner, I did some in depth model analysis and some of what I saw was eye-popping; extreme instability coupled with incredible shear created a parameter space on par with or perhaps exceeding any of the biggest outbreaks in recorded history. Even so, the storm remained discrete and we just couldnt leave it in favor of other storms when it was in that environment. Ive experienced this on a few occasions; May 24th, 2011 and May 31st, 2013 immediately come to mind. A 77-year-old grandmother was found stabbed to death in her own garage inside a gated community in an Atlanta suburb on Saturday. There were 14 billion-dollar disasters in 2019, making it the fifth consecutive year with at least 10 billion-dollar disasters. Please read In a new weather.com clip, Ari Salsalari and I discuss Monday's forecast and why it didn't quite pan out as expected. Particularly photogenic EF3 tornado that killed two teens driving. Why wasnt the tornado outbreak in Oklahoma and Texas as bad as feared? On Monday May 20th, I personally watched tornado polygons illuminate my weather radar screen much of the day. EF4 tornado, part of a localized outbreak of tornadoes. May 22, 2008: Windsor, Colorado EF3 wedge tornado, particularly long-tracked, wide, and at an early time of day for the area. Massive thunderstorm-triggered haboob that lasted over 2 hours and 100 miles. Long-tracked EF4 tornado that became the third widest on record at 2.25 miles, and killed 8 people. Particularly photogenic surprise morning mothership supercell. Marsh showed atmospheric profiles collected on Monday from Norman, OK, and in the catastrophic 2011 Super Outbreak from Birmingham, AL, and reflected on how similar they were. It never fails to perplex, confound and humble us, even when we think we have the smallest shred of understanding. Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Several tornadoes produced by a cluster of cyclic supercells in rapid succession. Infamous long-tracked EF4 tornado that killed 6 people and destroyed an already decaying town. Join our community EF4 tornado that killed 8 people as part of the Leap Day tornado outbreak. I previously discussed pros and cons of long-lead time outbreak forecasts in. 94 mph (151 km/h) 0 Tornado outbreak sequence . Two tornadoes, the first a particularly photogenic EF4, and the second an EF3 wedge tornado with winds measured by mobile radar to be over 200 mph. Overcast skies limited surface heating. A rare PDS outbreak stokes our basic curiosities even as we know the storms could alter lives in an instance. If you are using the metrics of 45% coverage of tornadoes or long-track, violent tornadoes, then the Monday outbreak probably doesnt meet that threshold. Well-defined debris signature w/ strong couplet representative of significant tornado. Long-tracked EF3 tornado, part of an unusual tornado outbreak for the time of year. Winds were strongest a few minutes before it crossed N of Mangum. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM. We need continued integration of technical and social science research as we have seen recently in the VORTEX-SE campaign. Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. What came out next blew us away: 45% hatched tornado probability from the Texas Panhandle extending east into Oklahoma. An event that was largely a surprise (especially in magnitude) until later in the forecast period. In the core high-risk area, SPC called for up to 45% odds that any of these significant events could occur within a 25-mile radius of any point: an EF2 tornado, hail of at least 2, or wind gusts to at least 74 mph. Multi-vortex tornado, known for chasing storm chasers, that went on to become a long-lived EF3. Even having seen a significant tornado only moments before, this seemed incomprehensible. There was an electricity a nervousness that only comes with a truly high-end severe weather day. Particularly photogenic tornado, especially for the area. Part of an outbreak of tornadoes across the central Plains. This tornado outbreak was the state's costliest, clocking in around $2 billion. Since I started chasing, I've seen a host of significant tornado events, including the 2011 Joplin EF5 and the 2013 El Reno EF3 (El Reno was an EF5), amongst many others. It wasnt long before storms began developing to our southwest. May 24th, 2011 featured an ultra, ultra rare 45% hatched probability for tornadoes that lived up to its potential by producing several long-track, violent tornadoes. The cold upper low in the western U.S. thats been helping to trigger this weeks severe weatheras well as a few surprisingly intense late-May snows over parts of the West and Upper Midwestwill twirl in place while slowly weakening this week. Two of 10 tornadoes produced by a cyclic supercell, part of an event with an eastern extent and intensity that was largely a surprise.. Part of an outbreak of particularly photogenic nocturnal tornadoes, unprecedented for the time of year for the area. May 20, 2019 < May 19, 2019 May 21, 2019 > SVR Reports; Preliminary Reports: Obs and Mesoanalysis; Obs and Mesoanalysis: Upper-Air Analyses; 925 mb: 12z 00z: . Colorado record hail, measured at 4.83 inches, and twin tornadoes. EF3 tornado from long-tracked supercell storm, part of an anomalous severe weather outbreak from Georgia into South Carolina. Infamous first EF5 tornado that killed 11 people and destroyed 95% of the town. Severe weather outlook for May 20th 2019 as issued, Meteorologists in the NWS Norman office. As if this wasnt enough, the SPC soon issued its first watch for right where we were sitting. #okwx #txwx #arwx #mowx #kswx pic.twitter.com/y2p1mNtrjV. I was excited. DEBRIS WAS OBSERVED IN THE ASSOCIATED RADAR . ERA5 has a bias toward cool surface temperatures and weak buoyancy. Immaculately-structured mothership supercell that evaded all but a few lone chasers. November 15, 2005: Madisonville, Kentucky, April 2, 2006: Marmaduke, Arkansas / Caruthersville, Missouri, March 28, 2007: Silverton / Jericho, Texas, April 24, 2007: Eagle Pass, Texas / Piedras Negras, CH, Mexico, June 23, 2007: Pipestone, Manitoba, Canada, February 5, 2008: Atkins / Clinton, Arkansas, February 5, 2008: Jackson and Clifton, Tennessee, August 7, 2010: Tyler, North Dakota / Doran, Minnesota, December 31, 2010: Fort Leonard Wood, Missouri, April 27, 2011: Philadelphia, Mississippi, April 27, 2011: Hackleburg & Smithville, Alabama, April 27, 2011: Tuscaloosa / Birmingham, Alabama, May 24, 2011: El Reno / Piedmont, Oklahoma, May 24, 2011: Chickasha / Newcastle, Oklahoma, May 19, 2012: Kingman / Harper Counties, Kansas, February 10, 2013: Hattiesburg, Mississippi, May 19, 2013: Lake Thunderbird / Shawnee, Oklahoma, April 27, 2014: Mayflower / Vilonia, Arkansas, May 18, 2014: Wright / Newcastle, Wyoming, April 9, 2015: Rochelle / Fairdale, Illinois, May 6, 2015: Amber / Bridge Creek / Norman, Oklahoma, June 5, 2015: Anton / Cope / Kirk, Colorado, June 22, 2015: Woodhaven Lakes / Sublette, Illinois, July 13, 2015: Nickerson / Hutchinson, Kansas, November 16, 2015: Plains, Kansas and Pampa, Texas, December 23, 2015: Holly Springs, Mississippi, May 9, 2016: Katie / Wynnewood / Sulphur, Oklahoma, May 24, 2016: Minneola / Dodge City, Kansas, June 2, 2017: Three Hills, Alberta, Canada, July 12, 2017: Mayville/ Buxton, North Dakota, June 28, 2018: Capitol, Montana / Camp Crook, South Dakota, July 8, 2018: Interstate 8 / Southwest Arizona, July 19, 2018: Bondurant, Marshalltown, and Pella, Iowa, September 21, 2018: Dunrobin / Gatineau / Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, October 2, 2018: Conneautville, Pennsylvania, December 1, 2018: Havana and Taylorville, Illinois, May 23, 2019: Canadian, Texas / Laverne, Oklahoma, September 10, 2019: Guernsey / Lingle, Wyoming, September 29, 2019: Champaign County, Illinois, March 2, 2020: Nashville / Cookeville, Tennessee, April 12, 2020: Bassfield / Soso, Mississippi, April 22, 2020: Madill / Springer, Oklahoma, August 7, 2020: Virden / Scarth, Manitoba, Canada, March 25, 2021: Greensboro / Centreville, Alabama, April 27, 2021: Truscott / Benjamin / Electra, Texas, June 10, 2021: Sidney, Montana / Alexander, North Dakota, July 14, 2021: Jewell Junction / Stanhope, Iowa, August 11, 2021: Mineral Point, Wisconsin, September 1, 2021: Mullica Hill, New Jersey, December 10, 2021: Monette, Arkansas / Mayfield, Kentucky, March 21, 2022: Round Rock & Elgin, Texas, March 22, 2022: New OrleansArabi, Louisiana, April 21, 2022: Rush Center & Offerle, Kansas, November 4, 2022: Clarksville, Texas Idabel, Oklahoma, a local outbreak in and around the Texas panhandle, series of particularly photogenic tornadoes, Pair of particularly photogenic tornadoes. Oklahoma saw three noteworthy tornado events, apparently none of which produced serious injuries: One twister passed very near the town of Mangum in southwest Oklahoma, destroying several outbuildings and homes. This has always been somewhat baffling to me. Only the 18th time @NWSSPC has issued a Day 3 Moderate Risk. They reported that roughly 75% of tornado warnings in the U.S. are false alarms. Photogenic and dusty EF2 tornado that hit an oil workers camp. The night before we were set to fly out to meet up with the tour in Denver, a video came to our attention that had been filmed by Roger the night before. Particularly photogenic supercell, especially for the area and time of year. This meant the outbreak was the country's 11 th billion-dollar disaster in 2019. This statement is not particularly unusual at this time of the year. Two days prior on May 18th, the SPC issued a relatively rare Day three moderate risk, and re-upped the moderate risk the following day. Looking for inspiration? May 20, 2019 Tornado Mangum, Oklahoma. Long-tracked EF4 tornado, part of the Super Tuesday Outbreak. One saving grace Marsh mentioned to me was the southward-surging pool of rain-cooled air from the day's early storms, which spread out ahead of the dryline-generated storms that eventually moved through late Monday night. Often regarded as the gold standard for recent dust storms for the west Texas area. RAP may also feature unrealistic low-level moisture distributions, such as high surface dewpoints in otherwise dry boundary layers. The era of 24/7 news cycles, extreme chaser videos and social media are partly responsible. A quick recap of rainfall and flood reports over the past 24 hours, compared to the WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook at 15Z yesterday (after High Risk was expanded). We decided on the latter, as the storm wasnt looking imminently tornadic and we felt that this strategy would give us the best opportunity to stay ahead of the storm should a strong mesocyclone develop and cause the storm to deviate to the right. Sure enough, a chopper was reporting a large, multi-vortex tornado on the ground not a mile from our location. We grabbed some breakfast at Sonic and watched out the window as the high clouds in the wake of the storms to the north began to burn off. The HRRR and NAM showed an extraordinary day with many, May 6, 2019 - Severe Storms in central KS including tornadic supercell at night north of Greensburg. Around the same time, the storm inexplicably began to shrivel up. Photogenic supercells that produced hail up to 4.25 inches and a couple tornadoes. Map last updated June 3 in the evening. www awardselect com award select. Many school systems closed for the day, and shops and restaurants shuttered their doors in advance of the anticipated onslaught. Upon making it to Childress, we noticed something odd; the tornadic mid-morning storms hadnt developed. With at least 19 tornadoes, flooding on Interstate 40, and hail damage, how could this be a forecast bust? A Tweet by Michelle Lynn strongly resonated with me: For those calling it a bust, say that to my family who live in Mangum, OK. Luckily, they are ok, but that tornado was NOT A BUST. Robust supercells, such as the one shown below, began developing across the Texas panhandle. Some of the feel is undoubtedly related to the hype that comes with high-end tornado events. Schools and colleges in central Oklahoma were closed for the day, not only out of safety concerns for the sheltering in place but also because of vulnerable bus routes. When was the last time Dallas, Texas had a tornado? NOAAs Storm Prediction Center(SPC)tweeted that morning: Parts of Arkansas, Missouri, andOklahoma were under tornado warnings and flooding threats early Tuesday morning as I write this article. This was Level 5 out of 5, the high-risk category for a widespread, major severe weather outbreak that included large and destructive hail, destructive winds, and tornadoes, some potentially long-track and violent.. Photogenic tornado produced by supercell in an anomalously unstable environment in the high terrain of NE NM. We got into the hook of the storm and looked back at the mesocyclone south of Kirkland, Texas a spot that shouldve provided us with a perfect view of the tornado. may 20, 2019 tornado bust. We were confused, as we didnt have a visual of a ground circulation even given our ability to see the rapidly rotating wall cloud just to our west. The OH extent of the event was largely a surprise until late in the forecast period. We sat in Childress for a couple more hours, waiting to see what the new SPC day one outlook set to come out at 1130 am would show us. These challenges highlight why the emergence of social science research on communication, psychology, sociology, and geography is so important. Associated with a supercell which produced 22 tornadoes across central KS, including one likely wider and stronger than the Greensburg EF5. Tornado outbreaks just feel different than other chase days. Photogenic and dusty tornado that weaved through a field of wind turbines. The tornado outbreak sequence of May 2019. There was a real possibility that many lives could have been lost or permanently altered by the weather that day, but that simply didnt happen. Long-tracked EF4 tornado that killed 3 people as part of the largest November IL tornado outbreak on record. Massive and particularly photogenic mothership supercell. Particularly photogenic orange carrot tornado. In many ways, it seemed like a slam dunk. There are five levels of severe weather risk issued by the SPC, the details of which can be seen below. Particularly photogenic EF3 tornado with well-documented and mesmerizing sub-vortex dynamics. 1999 (145 tornadoes) was the previous record year in the Sooner State and included the destructive May 3, 1999 outbreak including the F5 Oklahoma City metro tornado. A new study entitled Cry wolf effect? May 2019 tornado Jefferson City leaders document two years since EF3 tornado May 21, 2021 4:13 AM Meghan Drakas Jefferson City community leaders and organizations will be holding a. The latter tornado is often thought to be among the strongest of recorded tornadoes. Supercell that produced hail as large as 5 inches. Such events reveal a certain scientific giddiness coexisting with a sense of dread among meteorologists and weather enthusiasts. Photogenic EF2 tornado from a cyclic supercell that produced tornadoes up to EF3. The Mangum tornado is an example of what could have been, said Rick Smith, warning coordination meteorologist at NWS/Norman, on Twitter. We got south and ahead of a tornado warned storm near Paducah, Texas just as the first of what we expected to be multiple tornadoes touched down. Updrafts tended to be skinny. Long-tracked and particularly photogenic EF4 tornado. Ironically, caps can be key ingredients in explosive storm development too. Since 2006, we've been out chasing every year save for 2018 when I was writing my Ph.D. dissertation. With relative ease considering the number of chasers we expected to see, we made it back out onto the main road. Realizing quickly that storms werent moving nearly as fast as expected, we shot back south towards Childress. Slow-moving EF4 wedge tornado lasting over 90 minutes, often referred to as Bennington II. Heres a guide. Simultaneously, heavy rains from severe thunderstorms flooded roads and houses and triggered water rescues. I call this worst-case scenario bias. By the way, a few weeks ago my family had to rush to the basement because of a Doppler radar-indicated tornado. May 29, 2022 - A potentially potent day in Northeastern Nebraska in a showdown with the cap. A majority of the May 2019 tornadoes occurred over many of the Central Plains and Midwestern states in three multi-day events (May 17-18, May 20-22 and May 26-29). Photogenic UFO-like supercell that dealt a swath of wind-driven significant-severe hail. The forecast seemed spot on. At the time of this writing, we are planning to head out next week to chase with fellow H&H chasers Travis and John. Myconcern is that our weather geekery and verification statistics dont really matter to someone that was impacted. Most of the tornadic storms were widely dispersed across the high-risk area, and there were no preliminary reports of any 2 hail in Oklahoma. Looking back now with far more experience in my pocket, we didn't see anything particularly incredible that week. At 1.7 miles in width, the hit would prove unnecessarily excessive. Great seeing storms struggle around Oklahoma City today. May 23rd, 2019. Long-tracked F2 tornado associated with the Six-State supercell, which lasted over 17 hours and travelled nearly 800 miles from Oklahoma to Michigan. Also featured a rather large eye on radar at peak intensity. EF3 tornado that was largely unanticipated. Although just slightly warmer than expected, this layerwhich moved into place just hours before the worst severe weather was expectedinhibited air parcels from rising to form thunderstorms, especially where there were no surface boundaries to force the issue. Particularly photogenic tornadoes from a rather atypical cold core-like setup for the area. Nearly 2.5-hour duration EF3 tornado from high-precipitation supercell, the longest-tracked tornado recorded in Wisconsin. The long of it: Growing up in Maplewood, New Jersey, its hard to become obsessed with the most extreme weather on the planet. Long-tracked EF4 tornado that killed 9 people. This is a little-used threat category, and it had been two years since a similar high-level alert had been issued in the United States. Wedge tornado produced by high-precipitation supercell, with recorded winds up to 212 mph, though rated an EF2. . As the storm continued tracking to the northeast, we had a choice to make in order to keep up with it: we could either go north then east or take a little more time and go east then north. clip. In a thread on his personal Twitter account, Edwards offered wide-ranging thoughts on what happened and what we can learn from it. Monday May 20, 2019 was a high risk day in Oklahoma. These points have certainly been noted by forecasters responsible for issuing Mondays 45 percent chance of tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. Meteorologists who had stressed the extreme nature of the threat on Monday found themselves with a whole different communication challenge on Tuesday: how to explain a catastrophe that almost but didnt quite happen. The high risk was issued for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes. A sequence of tornadoes, including two at one time, emerged from a compact supercell that passed just to the west of Oklahoma City. For a time, it did seem like a slam dunk. And sure enough, the army of supercells remained in the simulated reflectivity fields. A BRIEF TORNADO WAS REPORTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. For the period from 7 am CDT Monday to 7 am Tuesday, the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) had logged at least 26 tornado reports by Tuesday afternoon, along with 80 reports of severe wind (4 of those higher-end significant reports), and 87 reports of severe hail (14 of those significant). A local outbreak of well-documented and significant tornadoes. ERA5 soundings are occasionally marked by an incongruent disconnect in the low-level thermodynamic profile. A majority of the May 2019 tornadoes occurred over many of the Central Plains and Midwestern states in three multi-day events (May 17-18, May 20-22 and May 26-29). The main concern for me is that we have become a culture that frowns upon preparing for the worst and nothing happens. We were confused by the (relative) dearth of storm chasers in front of us. The list was procured by how impactful the storms were to civilization, how abnormal they were for the area, or how memorable they were to storm chasers. Most surprisingly, there were almost no supercell storms in the prime part of the warm sector across southwest Oklahoma, south of a warm front and well east of the cold front/dryline, where the air was most unstable and wind shear was amply supportive of high-end twisters. There was an intervening, stable layer about two miles above the ground, which partly suppressed updrafts in developing thunderstorms and not enough focused, low-level uplift of air to help push nascent updrafts into the deeper layers. So what happened on Mondayor rather, what didnt happen, and why? EF3 tornado, the strongest recorded tornado to hit New Orleans. EF3 tornado, part of a surprise outbreak of 24 tornadoes (up to EF3) produced by mini-supercells across northern IN and OH that went largely unforecast. Several supercell thunderstorms developed . That is beyond our current abilities to forecast in any longer-term forecast. A large, powerful low pressure system moved up across . EF4 tornado, part of an outbreak of tornadoes in the Southeast U.S. Photogenic and long-lived EF3 tornado that took a particularly abrupt northward jog, narrowly missing downtown.
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